Analysis: new licenses vs expirations #111
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It should be simple to determine when a "bump" of new licenses may expire (since the early 1990s, 10 years), but it's not.
AE7Q really understands how dates work for the FCC: https://www.ae7q.com/query/text/Explain.php
Then you might be able to figure out what could have been driving new numbers in the past, and any dropoff in numbers occurring at a later date (ahem, now).
K1IR may already be on the case: https://www.ae7q.com/board/phpBB/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1260. I know others are speculating, but maybe not using complete data.