Crossplot daily average temperature against furnace runtime to calculate relationship #43
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Original plan was to use second Raspberry Pi to log hyperlocal outside temp and use that to compare, but probably quicker and nearly as accurate to query daily average temperature from a weather API.
The reason for doing this is to get more granularity for temperature values than a monthly therms statement does. Over the course of a year, you would get 12 pairs of therms/temperature values (and some of those would be meaningless if during the summer). That's not enough data to draw reasonable conclusions about the relationship (and confidence envelope) between the temperature and how much the furnace runs.
More granularity is needed if you want to change something about the house (raise or lower the thermostat setting, add insulation/sealing, increase/decrease number of people living in the house, etc.) and see the effects sooner (within days or weeks) rather than later (months on the statement) or never (if there are multiple factors, during the month, or the outside temperature doesn't hold steady).
I don't have a good grasp on an easy way to automate significance testing, but confidence limits around the regression line would be a start. Now this is starting to sound like my day job...